Finding opportunities in Bitcoin

Back when bitcoin was only bitcoin the conversation of opportunities was very different, it was more about selling things anonymously so darkweb marketplaces or buying hard to get things at qualities difficult to find previously. There was also mining, exchanges, news sites, casinos/gambling all revolving around a new decentralized digital currency.

Then in 2015 after a turbulent period for Bitcoins network ethereum was launched offering in the form of ERC-20 token which is has basically an easy “rent a blockchain” decreasing the barrier to entry by removing the requirement to build your own blockchain database network and allowing anyone with basic programming knowledge to start their own “bitcoin”.

From that point on the bitcoin conversation would never be the same. Conferences were filled with people preaching whitepapers, travel bloggers and failing amazon dropshippers switched to crypto experts virtually overnight. Suddenly all the bitcoin missionaries were outnumbered by mercenaries all looking to capitalized on “the next bitcoin” yet at the same time dismissing bitcoin as quickly as their blog or dropshipping business.

So how do you find opportunities in Bitcoin?

Information: If your information is better than all the other smart people you have an opportunity BUT there is so much out there and unless you have tools that allow you do filter and prioritize (if you don’t have them now just assume you don’t have them) you will drive yourself mad so not there.

Analysis: If your analysis is better then you have an opportunity BUT bitcoin is some of the smartest people in the world building, trading, and working with so unless you are good at using analysis in other industries to win such as combining different streams of data to find leading indicators or spotting network effects early this also probably not for you.

Behavior: If everybody is talking short term there is probably an opportunity long term and likewise. When you go to conferences and meetups the bulk of the conversations are “what do you think the price will do” and “do you want to read my whitepaper” those are good signs of short term thinking. What I find sorely lacking in bitcoin is conversation of what 2030 will look like vs 2010 not just “when will my blockchain speculation pay for my retirement”

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